[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

A gale warning is in effect for the area surrounding the low
associated with strong tropical wave moving rapidly across the
Caribbean basin. The tropical wave extends along 73W/74W with a
1007 mb low along the wave near 16.5N. The gale force winds are
currently within 90 nm northeast semicircle and 45 nm southwest
semicircle of the low. Please see the High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details on the
gale warnings. Wave and low are moving west near 20 kt. This
system has a high chance of tropical development within the next
48 hours. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details on
tropical development. Numerous showers with clusters of
thunderstorms cover the area north of 14N across the Greater
Antilles between 68W-78W, and from 20N to over the Turks and
Caicos between 69W-74W.

ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

Meteo France has issued a gale warning for the area between the
Canary Islands. Near gale to sometimes gale force is expected
for the next 24 hours. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High
Seas forecast that is listed under the following links:
MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on
the website...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/
BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along 19W/
20W moving southwest 15 to 20 kt over the past 12 hours. Wave
coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global models
and is embedded within a low-amplitude surge of moisture as seen
on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. No associated deep
convection is noted.

Tropical wave in the central Tropical Atlantic extends from
18N37W through a weak 1011 mb low near 12N39W to 10N40W. Wave
and low are moving west-northwest near 10 kt over the past 24
hours. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the
global models and is embedded within a high-amplitude surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery.
No associated deep convection is noted.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 13N17W and continues along 11N22W 13N32W through
the 1011 mb low to 11N42W where the ITCZ begins and continues
along 9N52W to South America near 8N59W. Scattered strong
convection is within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between
24W-27W. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are within 120 nm north and 180 nm south of the
monsoon trough east of 27W to the coast of Africa and within 120
nm of a line from 9N39W 7N50W to 7N55W. Small clusters of
scattered moderate convection are from 4N-10N between 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper ridge is anchored over south Alabama extending a ridge
axis southwest to inland over Mexico near Tampico. An inverted
upper trough is extends from south Mexico near the isthmus of
Tehuantepec over the northwest corner of the Yucatan peninsula
to the west tip of Cuba then into the west Atlantic supporting a
surface trough that extends from 23N92W to Mexico near 18N95W.
This is generating clusters of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms within 180 nm west of the surface trough. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms dot the east Gulf north of 23N east of
90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that have
developed inland over the Yucatan peninsula and west Cuba are
moving west into the east Bay of Campeche and the Yucatan
Channel. A surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic across
central Florida to a 1018 mb high near 28N94W continuing to over
east Texas. The surface ridge will persist through Wednesday.
The tropical wave/low in the Caribbean will move into the south
Gulf of Mexico Thursday, possibly as a tropical cyclone.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The prime focus again this evening is the strong tropical
wave/low moving through the central Caribbean with gale force
winds surrounding the low. See special features above for the
activity in the central CAribbean. Scattered to numerous showers
and isolated thunderstorms are from 13N-16N between 78W-83W. The
inverted upper trough that extends across the south Gulf of
Mexico over west tip of Cuba is generating scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 18N-21N between 82W-86W. The monsoon
trough extends from Colombia near 10N75W along north Panama near
9N79W to across Costa Rica near 10N83W generating isolated
showers and thunderstorms south of 10N west of 78W. The low
associated tropical wave and the accompanying gale force winds
will shift westward over the next couple of days before moving
out of the Caribbean Thursday.
There is a possibility that the low will develop into a
tropical cyclone tonight or Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
across the island this evening. This activity will persist
tonight into Tuesday with skies beginning to clear Tuesday
night into Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the special features above for the activity over the
Turks and Caicos. The inverted upper trough that extends across
the west tip of Cuba covers the far west Atlantic generating
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms within
60/75 nm of a line from 29N76W across Grand Bahama Island to the
coast of Cuba near 23N81W with isolated showers and
thunderstorms within 60/75 nm of a line from 28N74W to over Cuba
near 22N79W. A surface ridge dominates the remainder of the
Atlantic anchored by a 1028 mb high over the Azores with a ridge
axis extending through 32N40W 30N55W then west to a 1023 mb high
near 30N69W then southwest across central Florida into the Gulf
of Mexico. Surface ridge will persist through the week. The
north portion of the tropical wave over the central Caribbean
will move through the southwest Atlantic north of the Greater
Antilles through Tuesday accompanied by strong winds and
building seas that will shift west across the Bahamas late
tonight into Tuesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
PAW
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