[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1730 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING WARNING...

A strong tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with
axis extending from 21N71W to a 1007 mb low near 16N72W to 12N72W.
A gale warning is in effect for the southwest area within 90 nm
and 45 nm from the wave's axis. The tropical wave and low are
moving west at about 15-20 kt with numerous showers and
thunderstorms from 14N-20N between 68W-74W affecting Hispaniola
at this time. This system has a high chance of tropical
development within the next 24-48 hours. Please see the Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more details.

E ATLANTIC GALE WARNING WARNING...

Gale-force winds are forecast for the area of Canarias. Please
refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas forecast that is listed under
the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website...WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM
/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2.

TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis
extending from 18N18W to 09N10W. The wave coincides with an
inverted trough at 700 mb as depicted by global guidance and
abundant moisture is in its environment as noted on SSMI Total
Precipitable Water Imagery. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 08N-14N between 17W-26W.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic with axis
extending from 17N38W to 07N39W, moving west at 10-15 kt over the
past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a 700 mb inverted trough
as depicted in global guidance and is embedded within a surge of
moisture as seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water Imagery.
Scattered moderate convection is from 12N-15N between 38W-42W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across the east Tropical Atlantic from
12N24W to 12N35W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave near
12N43W and continues to 09N59W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection prevails
within 100 nm south of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends across the northern portion of the basin
anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N93W. With this, a
gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the Gulf
waters. An upper-level trough extends from western Cuba, to the
Florida Straits, and the southern portion of the Florida
Peninsula enhancing convection. Expect for the surface high to
dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected
elsewhere.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong tropical wave and gale are moving across the central
Caribbean. Please refer to the Special Features section above for
details. The Monsoon Trough extends across the southwest Caribbean
enhancing convection south of 11N between 77W-83W. Elsewhere,
fair weather prevails with moderate to fresh trades. Expect for the
tropical wave/low to continue moving west within the next 24 hours with
convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Currently, numerous strong convection extends across the island as
a strong tropical wave and low pressure center move through.
Please refer to the section above for details. Similar activity
will prevail through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the
section above for details. An upper-level trough extends across
the western Atlantic enhancing convection over the northern
Bahamas north of 23N and west of 75W. To the east, a surface ridge
prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb
high near 30N54W and a 1029 mb high near 37N25W. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the tropical waves to continue moving west with
convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA
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