[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301803
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N13W
TO 05N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 04N30W TO
04N40W TO 07N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 48W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN 10W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE ATLC...WHILE A 1000 MB LOW IS JUST
INLAND OVER W MEXICO N OF VERA CRUZ. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES SUPPORTS MODERATE SE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS COVER
THE NW GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE OF THE TX COAST.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUPPORTS SURFACE
TROUGHING OVER THE NW GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT AS OF 1700 UTC EXTENDED N OF 28.5N BETWEEN
90W AND 94W. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES MUCH OF THE EARLIER
FOG AFFECTING THE NW GULF HAS DISSIPATED...EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM
OF THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF 21N. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
SURFACE TROUGH SUPPORTING CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THE LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH TO
MODERATE TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NW GULF
FROM TX MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW N ATLC IS INTERACTING WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT CLUSTERS MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 15N
BETWEEN 62W AND 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS OVER EASTERN PANAMA
AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE EASTERN PANAMA BORDER. MAINLY MODERATE
TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY FRESH
TRADES OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE COAST
OF HONDURAS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SE AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION FROM PUERTO
RICO TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER HISPANIOLA AND MUCH OF THE SW N
ATLC. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE NOW RESIDES EAST OF HISPANIOLA.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE OVER THE ISLAND COMBINED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGHING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 30N73W TO 30N79W. NO
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SW N ATLC SUPPORTS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH FROM 29N71W TO
20N73W...AND YET ANOTHER TROUGH FROM 31N57W TO 23N63W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 26N
BETWEEN 56W AND 72W. FARTHER EAST...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 26N37W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW TO
NEAR 20N37W. THIS LOW IS EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER LOW
WHICH IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N
TO 29N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND NE FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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