[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N16W
ALONG 6N15W TO 4N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
3N29W TO 4N40W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF
ITCZ BETWEEN 33W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
DOT THE AREA FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH A
NARROWER UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING
UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE CONUS AND
IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER MISSISSIPPI TO
TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO REPORT PATCHES OF FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 26N W OF
90W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W AND NW GULF
THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING MODESTLY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE W ATLC IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 64W-70W. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-18N
BETWEEN 70W-79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF
15N E OF 68W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO STRONG THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT OVER THE
WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N TO
OVER THE THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC E OF 70W. LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N71W TO 29N77W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W 27N72W
22N71W TO OVER HAITI NEAR 19N72W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-
23N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN
59W-70W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH 32N63W TO A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W THEN
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. A THIRD
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 28N59W TO 25N62W. A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE IS S OF 30N ALONG 52W BUT IS STILL
PROVIDING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 56W-60W. A DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1011 MB
LOW NEAR 28N35W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING
ALONG 29N31W TO 27N27W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING
ALONG 19N32W TO 15N48W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 26W-32W. A
SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG
25N35W TO 20N39W. THE W ATLC PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD N OF 29N TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH LATE TODAY
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP S INTO THE W
ATLC EARLY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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