[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N15W TO 04N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N26W TO 03N40W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 01N TO 06N BETWEEN 12W AND 20W...AND FROM 03N
TO 07N BETWEEN 43W AND 55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE GULF
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA GENERATING A STRENGTHENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF WATERS W OF 90W. EAST OF 90W...WINDS REMAIN E-SE AT
GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR SKIES. AS THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SAT...SE
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WILL PERSIST AT STRONG LEVELS THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE BY SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT...WHEN A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
AND MOVE EASTWARD EARLY TUE THROUGH WED AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN
ACROSS THE SE GULF WATERS WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BASIN THIS EVENING THAT IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. TRADE WINDS REMAIN IN A
RANGE OF GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH LEVELS AS WEAK RIDGING
CONTINUES TO PROMOTE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN.
WHILE SKIES THIS EVENING ARE MOSTLY CLEAR...MUCH OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS GENERALLY N OF 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 72W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING N OF
20N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION. THE BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED BECOME DIFFUSE BY SUN
NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A LOCALLY STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

HISPANIOLA...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER A
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO
THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION. GIVEN LOWER LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND PEAK DAYTIME HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS EVENING. A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 70W/71W TO THE NORTH IS ALSO
PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL ENHANCEMENT TO THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER RE-DEVELOP SAT AND SUN
AFTERNOONS UNTIL THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTH BECOMES
DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES ON SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N67W SW TO A BROAD BASE NEAR
22N76W THAT IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE
ANALYZED FROM 20N71W TO 29N71W AND THE OTHER FROM 24N63W TO
31N59W. MOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS
TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG 71W AS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS ARE MORE FAVORABLE WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS STRETCHING FROM ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO
NE TO NEAR 30N50W. THE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SUN
EVENING WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WATERS TO THE NORTH
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. FARTHER
EAST...A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
28N33W THAT SUPPORTS A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N33W
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO
28N27W TO 22N28W TO 17N40W THEN DISSIPATING WEST TO 17N50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE CONFINED TO WITHIN 90
NM OF THE LOW CENTER...AND WITHIN 90 NM E-NE OF THE FRONT N OF
27N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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