[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N20W TO 4N25W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO 3N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 0N-4N BETWEEN 11W-19W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 51W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER OVER THE WESTERN GULF THUS 15-25 KT
WINDS ARE W OF 90W. THE EASTERN GULF HAS ONLY 5-15 KT WINDS WITH
THE LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 90W-98W THAT HAS ADVECTED FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE INLAND OVER SE TEXAS
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT FOG OVER THE NW GULF DURING THE
EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ALSO OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS AND SEAS 2-5 FT. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA AND
W VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA.
ELSEWHERE A SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W
OF 75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...INLAND OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...
AND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA TO CONTINUE.

HISPANIOLA...

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER EASTERN HISPANIOLA
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WELL N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 29N59W
TO 24N62W IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 58W-63W. ELSEWHERE A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N32W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N27W TO 26N26W
TO 17N40W TO 18N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW CENTER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE LOW TO MOVE SW TO 26N36W AND WEAKEN TO 1012 MB.
ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DISSIPATE WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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