[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 5N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 4N21W TO 3N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
27W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 3W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES TO OVER
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GENERATING A SQUALL LINE AT
27/1500 UTC FROM OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W TO 29N93W
WHERE IT CONTINUES AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO NE MEXICO NEAR
25N98W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM W OF THE SQUALL LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. THE SQUALL LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SE NEAR 25
KT. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINS WELL INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NE FLORIDA
INTO THE E GULF. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOMINATE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THE SQUALL
LINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SE THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE N GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT PULSING
STRONG E TO SE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED S OF
CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT FRONT ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS GIVING THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER HAITI WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N74W ACROSS SW HAITI TO 15N72W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TAIL END A REMNANT
FRONT ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC
THROUGH 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO 18N70W. THIS IS
GIVING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE MONA PASSAGE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER HAITI
WILL DRIFT W TO E CUBA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THU. THUS...
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
HISPANIOLA SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS BERMUDA AND NE FLORIDA INTO THE E
GULF OF MEXICO. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS IN THE NE ATLC SUPPORTING
A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 31N40W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT N OF THE REGION
AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N34W ALONG 27N37W TO
23N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 21N56W THEN CONTINUES AS A
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 21N64W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
18N70W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120
NM E OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 25N-28N.
AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK 1019 MB
HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 27N26W.
THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE E ATLC THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THU
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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