[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W 08N15W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 08N15W 04N23W 04N29W TO
02N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 04N SOUTH FROM 15W EASTWARD...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 05N10W 04N20W 04N30W 05N43W 07N52W
10N60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA...TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KBQX...AND KDLP.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...
KEHC...KVBS...KVQT...KEIR...KSPR...KGRY...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR FROM HARLINGEN WESTWARD IN THE LOWER VALLEY...MVFR
TO THE EAST OF HARLINGEN. IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR
STATION. LIGHT RAIN IN VICTORIA. HEAVY RAIN IN PORT LAVACA. IFR
IN BAY CITY. RAINSHOWERS...SOMETIMES HEAVY...AND THUNDER IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MVFR ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST/IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL
PLAINS...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI...MVFR IN
BILOXI AND GULFPORT. IFR IN PASCAGOULA. ALABAMA...MVFR RIGHT AT
THE COAST. LIFR FROM EVERGREEN TO THE CAIRNS AIRFIELD AT FORT
RUCKER TO DOTHAN. FLORIDA...MVFR IN PENSACOLA. LIFR AT WHITING
FIELD NEAR MILTON AND IN CRESTVIEW. IFR IN VALPARAISO AND
DESTIN. LIFR IN MARIANNA AND IN THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN
AREA. THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
LIFR IN TALLAHASSEE AND PERRY. MVFR IN APALACHICOLA. MVFR AT THE
TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

PLEASE REFER TO THE WEATHER BULLETINS FROM THE NWS OFFICE IN SAN
JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR DETAILS ABOUT RAIN THAT CONTINUED THERE
DURING TUESDAY...AND ANY POSSIBLE FLOODING. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLAND DURING THE LAST 8 HOURS. SOME RESIDUAL MULTILAYERED
MOISTURE REMAINS AS THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
BEGINNING AND ENDING.

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO...REACHING THE EASTERN PARTS OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W
AND 74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N72W...ACROSS HAITI...TO 17N73W...TO
14N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO
17N BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND
DIMINISHING IN THE CENTER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TODAY.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE
BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. PUNTA CANA...LIGHT RAIN AND MVFR
CEILING. SANTIAGO...MVFR CEILING. PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 30000
FEET...VFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF A
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF DAY ONE...AND DURING ALL OF DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT THROUGH
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FOR DAY ONE...AND WEST-TO-SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY
TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
A TROUGH FROM CUBA TO THE WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND
HAITI...AND AN EAST-TO-WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. THE TROUGH WILL END UP IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
DURING DAY TWO. THE RIDGE WILL STAY TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N43W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N36W 26N40W
21N52W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 21N52W TO 19N61W. THE FRONT
IS DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 19N61W...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF PUERTO RICO...TO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO
30N BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 15
NM TO 30 NM OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 32N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W. JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 74W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N26W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT/STATIONARY
FRONT...PASSING THROUGH A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N61W TO 29N75W...ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...TOWARD THE
UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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