[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250544
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON APR 25 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

DEVELOPING GALE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE 15-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FROM
31N57W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 28N57W...
WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT TO 20N65W. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 14 FEET
WITHIN 360 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF LOW.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF
GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 08N16W AND 06N19W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N19W TO 04N26W 04N37W 03N44W AND 02N50W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 03N05W...AND THE EQUATOR ALONG 07W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 01N03W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN
09W AND 11W...FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 40W AND THE COAST OF
BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN NORTHERN
MEXICO 18 HOURS AGO OR SO...NOW IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W
AND 95W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBBF...KHHV...KGUL...KVBS...KEHC...AND KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...LIGHT RAIN AND THUNDER DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS
IN HARLINGEN. MVFR IN THE CORPUS CHRISTI METROPOLITAN AREA AND
IN ROCKPORT. LIGHT RAIN IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR IN
GALVESTON...HOUSTON HOBBY...PEARLAND...IN TOMBALL...AND AT THE
HOUSTON INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. IFR IN CONROE AND HUNTSVILLE.
FROM LOUISIANA TO ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...LIGHT
RAIN AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 19N82W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 20N56W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND.
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0000 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...VFR...AT 25/0000
UTC. SANTO DOMINGO...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A CLOUD
CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. LA ROMANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...VFR...AT
25/0300 UTC. PUNTA CANA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A
CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 7000 FEET...VFR. SANTIAGO...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...
VFR. PUERTO PLATA...A CLOUD CEILING WHOSE BASE IS AT 1600
FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT DAY ONE WILL CONSIST OF
NORTHWEST WIND...BECOMING WEST WIND...AND SOUTHWEST WIND.
DAY ONE WILL START WITH ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND IT WILL END
WITH A TROUGH ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF
THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AND IT WILL
END UP BEING ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AFTER THE TROUGH
HAS CLEARED THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT DAY
ONE WILL START WITH CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND A TROUGH...
PROGRESSING TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM CUBA TO JAMAICA
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
AFTER THE EARLIER NORTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE START OF THE DAY.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE START OF DAY TWO. IT WILL BUILD
WESTWARD...AGAIN...DURING THE REST OF DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WITH THE RIDGE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W...TO 23N65W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 22N NORTHWARD FROM 59W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 26N64W AND 20N69W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 15 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W... AND
FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE AREAS OF COMPARATIVELY
STRONGER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
32N. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.18 IN
BERMUDA.

BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 42W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 41N41W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
32N35W TO 31N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N28W 27N32W
24N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER RAINSHOWERS FROM 25N
TO 28N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND DISSIPATING
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS CONTINUE FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN
28W AND 40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...PASSING
THROUGH 32N21W...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N26W...TO 20N34.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...FROM
27N38W TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N48W...
TO 20N56W...ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 17N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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