[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO
3N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 11W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N79W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S
FLORIDA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A SMALL AREA NEAR MERIDA
MEXICO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER SE TEXAS AND THE
NW GULF FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 92W-98W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE
SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SURFACE
FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SHIFT TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. ALSO EXPECT
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE E TO N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND W VENEZUELA FROM 4N-12N
BETWEEN 70W-77W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A RELATIVELY
LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N77W. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER EASTERN
HISPANIOLA. AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC COMBINED WITH
THE LOCAL EFFECTS WILL PROMOTE MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 31N63W TO 23N69W. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
31N62W TO 21N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC AT 29N30W TO 23N40W TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT
23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1019
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N26W. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 31N56W TO
N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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