[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170530
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN APR 17 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA
NEAR 05N09W TO 04N11W AND 04N13W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N13W
TO 04N20W...CURVING TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 02S36W...AND
INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED MODERATE FROM
08N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH
24N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...TO 25N80W AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 28N
BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 29N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W
WESTWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N92W 26N93W 24N94W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KHHV...KXIH...KVQT...AND KSPR.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KBQX...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KGLS AND LIGHT RAIN...
KVBS...KEHC...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KMDJ...AND KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION CORPUS CHRISTI...ROCKPORT...AND FROM
VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA TO PALACIOS...AND IN BAY CITY MVFR IN
FALFURRIAS AND KINGSVILLE. MVFR FROM ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO
GALVESTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR...TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA WITH SOME AREAS OF RAIN...MVFR FROM HOUSTON TO HUNTSVILLE
AND JASPER. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...INCLUDING
AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA/FLORIDA...VFR/NO
CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND ACROSS THE LAND MASS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-
EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEST
WIND FLOW REACHES JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD.
WEST WIND FLOW ALSO CROSSES NICARAGUA AND IT REACHES 80W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...MOVING ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...AND CONTINUING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ACROSS HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 5000 FEET...VFR...AT
17/0200 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 17/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA
CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...WITH
A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. DAY TWO WILL CONSIST OF...
FIRST...SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW...EVENTUALLY BECOMING WESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROUGH
EITHER WILL BE DIRECTLY ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA...OR IT WILL BE
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA...FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING DAY ONE...WITH
HISPANIOLA AT THE WESTERN END OF A RIDGE. SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO. THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT
WILL BE TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA PLUS THE ALREADY-EXISTING
RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF DAY TWO. THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW DURING THE SECOND HALF OF DAY TWO WILL BE MORE RELATED
TO JUST THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 36N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE
CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES 32N55W TO 26N60W 24N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
TO 25N80W AND 27N90W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N55W...TO THE COAST OF CUBA ALONG 79W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE BAHAMAS...TO THE NORTH OF THE 32N55W-
TO-25N80W COLD FRONT.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 40N34W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 50W. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W. THIS CYCLONIC
CENTER SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 33N16W 30N27W...TO A
1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N31W. THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO 25N40W AND 26N47W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT
26N47W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 29N51W AND 33N54W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W 25N29W 20N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A CANARY ISLANDS 1019 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N15W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N22W...TO A THIRD 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N43W...TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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