[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT APR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS LIBERIA AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 05N09W AND THEN CONTINUES TO 04N13W...WHERE
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND THEN EXTENDS ALONG 02N23W TO 02S35W TO THE
COAST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER THE NW
ATLC EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH BASE REACHING
THE GULF E OF 84W. A COLD FRONT SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE LOW AND
TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS ACROSS SW N ATLC WATERS...THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO 25N81W THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF TO 26N90W TO GALVESTON TEXAS OFFSHORE WATERS NEAR 28N95W.
FRESH TO STRONG WINDS PREVAILS N OF THE FRONT BEING SUPPORTED BY
A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A RIDGE THAT COVERS THE EASTERN
CONUS AND LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCAT
DATA INDICATE LIGHT SE FLOW DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120-170
NM S OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 91W.
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC WATERS BY AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER CONVERGING WITH MOISTURE INFLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN ALONG
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT THIS CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...THE
GOES IFR INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG S
OF 27N W OF 88W. VESSELS AND BOATS IN THIS REGION SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION AS VISIBILITY MAY BE LESS THAN 3 MILES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPORT GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER. EXCEPT WITHIN 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE
LOCAL GEOGRAPHY SUPPORT FRESH WINDS...A RELAXED PRES GRADIENT
CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES. SHALLOW MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE GREATER ANTILLES...JAMAICA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NE BASIN SUN BRINGING SHOWERS TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL AMPLIFY AND WILL AFFECT
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA LATE SUN AND MON AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH MOVES W AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
ATLC DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DUE TO ATLC AND CARIBBEAN MOISTURE
CONFLUENCE. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUN EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLAND FROM THE NW AND A SURFACE TROUGH TRAVERSE
THE NE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N56W TO 24N70W TO THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
BOUNDARY. E OF THE FRONT...A 1011 MB IS NEAR 26N52W.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT STARTS TO DEVELOP FROM 30N27W TO A
1012MB LOW NEAR 27N33W TO 26N45W. NO SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE FEATURES. RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS
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