[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161117
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 04N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 04N20W
02N28W AND 01N35W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 01N TO 05N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W...AND FROM 04N TO 05N
BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 07N
SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
WITHIN 200 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 22N17W TO 17N35W TO 08N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N83W 28N86W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
28N SOUTHWARD.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 94W/95W FROM 23N INTO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KVQT.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KMZG...KBQX...KGLS...KEMK...KEHC...KEIR...
KSPR WITH SOME VARIATION...KMDJ...KIKT...KVOA...KVKY WITH SOME
VARIATION...KMIS

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR TO MVFR IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE CORPUS
CHRISTI AND ALICE METROPOLITAN AREAS. LIGHT RAIN IS OFF-AND-ON
FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO ALICE. IFR IN ROCKPORT...BAY CITY...AND
IN ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON. MVFR FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN
AREA TO HUNTSVILLE...AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR.
LOUISIANA...IFR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS...GALLIANO/PORT FOURCHON/ BOOTHVILLE. MVFR FROM BATON
ROUGE TO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FROM IFR TO
MVFR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LIGHT
RAIN. MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MVFR.
FLORIDA...MVFR AT THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR STATION. IFR IN
PENSACOLA AND WHITING FIELD NEAR MILTON. MVFR IN MARY ESTHER AND
IN DESTIN. IFR IN VALPARAISO AND CRESTVIEW. MVFR IN MARIANNA AND
IN APALACHICOLA. MVFR AT THE ST.PETE/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...BARAHONA...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE END. A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AS A
TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE
AREA FROM THE EAST...PUSHING SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 39N64W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
32N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. THE
CYCLONIC CENTER AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES 32N58W TO 26N65W AND 27N72W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
FROM 27N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...BEYOND 28N88W IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 27N78W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N66W TO 25N68W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN
BERMUDA.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 41N32W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N13W 29N20W 28N32W 26N37W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N40W TO A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N48W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM
THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 22N54W AND 18N60W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 34W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 22N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 60
NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N61W 20N55W 22N50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MOROCCO TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
24N22W...TO A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
23N33W...TO 10N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net