[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 16 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 09N13W TO 04N20W AND 02N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
02N30W 01N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W...TO 01S49W IN
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 08W AND 12W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 06N
SOUTHWARD FROM 40W EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS
WITHIN 180 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 24N16W TO 18N35W TO 11N48W AND 08N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD A 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN EAST TEXAS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 90W/92W FROM 22N TO 27N.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KGRY AND KMIS.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KVAF...KGUL...KVBS...KVQT...KGHB...KEIR...
KSPR...KATP...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...MVFR FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO THE CORPUS
CHRISTI AND ALICE METROPOLITAN AREAS. CLEARING SKIES FROM
VICTORIA TO PORT LAVACA AND PALACIOS. MVFR IN BAY CITY.
VFR/NO CEILINGS FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA TO HUNTSVILLE.
MVFR IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR AND IN JASPER. LOUISIANA...MVFR
FROM BATON ROUGE SOUTHWARD...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...MVFR. FLORIDA...MVFR FROM PERRY WESTWARD...
AND IN MARATHON KEY.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY FROM 18N SOUTHWARD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 16/0100 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
BARAHONA...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AT 16/0000 UTC. SANTO DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONSIST OF NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
EVENTUALLY BECOMING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AT THE END. A
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT MORE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO OF THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR DAY ONE. SOUTHWEST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO...AS A
TROUGH IS PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE
AREA FROM THE EAST...PUSHING SOUTHWEST AND WEST WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 39N63W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 32N58W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND THE EASTERN
U.S.A. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CURVES THROUGH
32N60W 28N68W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 28N68W TO
FLORIDA...BEYOND 28N81W IN CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 23N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.01 IN BERMUDA.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 26N51W...TO 21N54W AND 16N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 16N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 42N31W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N13W 29N20W 28N31W 27N38W.
A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N41W TO 24N45W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N37W 26N40W 25N43W
24N47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 20W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES CENTRAL MOROCCO...TO A 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N22W...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N33W TO 15N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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