[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 15 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 2N24W TO 3N39W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 3N42W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF TONIGHT. AT
15/0300 UTC...A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN COCOA BEACH AND CEDAR KEY CONTINUING INTO
THE GULF TO THE CHANDELEUR ISLANDS NEAR 30N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SW LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF NEAR 29.5N92.5W TO A
1011 MB LOW NEAR 28N92.5W ALONG 26N93W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
JUST N OF TAMPICO. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF
EXTENDING FROM 23N89W INLAND OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
MERIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NE
GULF N OF 25N TO THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 87W TO ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE S
GULF S OF 25N W OF 87W. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE NE GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE SAT. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE N OF 17N W OF 80W WHERE
UPPER MOISTURE IS MOVING IN FROM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SKIES REMAIN RATHER CLEAR ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE S COAST OF
HISPANIOLA AND E PUERTO RICO. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRI. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W TO 15N64W. THE TROUGH
WILL DRIFT E THROUGH SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUN
AND INCREASING TO STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS OVERNIGHT AND
FRI NIGHT THAT WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE S COAST OF THE ISLAND
TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHEN
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED INCREASE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGH SUN. THIS COULD GIVE THE ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
AT 15/0300 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W TO 29N72W WHERE A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 29N79W THEN
CROSSES FLORIDA NEAR COCOA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 26N TO THE FRONT W OF 78W TO OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 74W TO INLAND OVER THE SE
CONUS. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS
FROM 32N54W TO 23N52W SUPPORTING A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 25N55W WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S ALONG 21N56W ALONG 19N60W INTO
THE NE CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N62W. A WARM FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE
1011 MB LOW ALONG 27N52W TO 26N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 23N TO THE WARM FRONT BETWEEN 48W-53W. A
LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N19W ALONG 27N29W TO 26N41W WHERE
IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N47W THEN DISSIPATES TO 31N56W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 23N37W
AND A SECOND 1018 MB HIGH NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N11W.
THE CENTRAL ATLC LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY WHILE THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SLOWLY S REACHING FROM
32N65W ALONG 29N71W TO SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA FRI MORNING THEN
FROM 32N58W ALONG 27N65W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA SAT MORNING
BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N55W ALONG 25N65W TO FORT LAUDERDALE
FLORIDA SUN MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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