[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA REACHING THE E TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N12W TO 02N22W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ
TO 03N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH BREAKS THE ITCZ AND EXTENDS FROM
10N39W TO 02N40W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROUGH FROM 02N42W
TO 00N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 13W-26W AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR
28N94W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N AND S FROM THE FRONT FROM
29N78W TO 25N94W TO 22N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXTENDS FROM
THE SAME LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS FROM 28N94W TO
29N87W TO 28N83W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PREVAILS ACROSS THE NE GULF SUPPORTED AT UPPER-
LEVELS BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW N OF 27N BETWEEN 85W-90W. TO THE
SW...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF CAMPECHE FROM
23N92W TO 19N92W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW WILL DISSIPATE. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING BY SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NE.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH BY
THIS WEEKEND. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EACH AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W OVERNIGHT EACH NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE BASIN AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREATER ANTILLES
TRANSPORTED BY THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES THAT PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF 16N. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 17N60W TO 14N61W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL S OF
16N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL INCREASING TO STRONG EACH
NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS ON FRI...BECOMING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE
WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE ISLAND TRANSPORTED BY THE TRADES. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE THE ISLAND WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED TSTMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
29N80W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 31N75W THEN
BECOMES A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO 32N69W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW N OF 28N AND W OF
79W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N57W. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 25N48W WHILE A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE S TO 18N61W THEN E OF
THE LEEWARD/WINDWARD ISLANDS. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS
ACROSS OUR DISCUSSION AREA. A STATIONARY FRONT IS FROM 30N56W TO
27N41W THEN TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD FRONT FROM THAT POINT TO
32N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY
OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED WARM FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT 23N-
31N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 22N34W. DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC STATIONARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT MOVING E WITH CONVECTION AND ENHANCING WINDS/SEAS. THE
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND HIGH TO THE E WILL MOVE E.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net