[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N18W TO 2N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 4N37W 3N43W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR
48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING
MOISTURE OVER THE GULF S OF 27N. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC
EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND TAMPA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF ALONG
28N85W ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF SE LOUISIANA TO A 1011 MB
LOW NEAR 27N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW
ALONG 23N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND THE
N GULF COAST BETWEEN 86W-93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 86W-92W...
AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH FRI NIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE N GULF DURING SAT AND SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. MODERATE TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ALL OF THE
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER SOME PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...AND EXTEND
S OF THE ISLAND TO NEAR 16.5N BETWEEN 69W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BETWEEN
SAINT LUCIA AND DOMINICA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH
DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH SUN AND
WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE
BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND FRI THAT
WILL BECOME FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ISLAND THIS MORNING BETWEEN 69W-73W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST S OF THE ISLAND WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR
THE S COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHEN THE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
AGAIN MOVE OVER THE ISLAND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE ISLAND WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF
31N...AND A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N75W TO ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 23N62W TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N62W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-
25N BETWEEN 55W-59W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N24W
ALONG 28N35W TO 28N44W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND
32N57W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 24N26W. THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E-NE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC
STATIONARY FRONT WILL BECOME A COLD FRONT TODAY...AND REACH FROM
NEAR 32N68W TO 29N74W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FROM
32N60W ALONG 27N65W TO 26N71W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA FRI NIGHT
THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW/AGUIRRE
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