[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140522
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 14 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W ALONG 4N15W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 2N35W THEN ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 44W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO
THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 6W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED
IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE
OVER THE GULF. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A
STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE W ATLC AT 14/0300 UTC ACROSS FLORIDA
BETWEEN DAYTONA BEACH AND HOMOSASSA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF
ALONG 28N85W ACROSS SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29.5N89W TO A 1013 MB LOW
NEAR 27N95W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1013 MB LOW ALONG
24N95W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. THE UPPER MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 26N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NW AND N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI
AS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SE ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS
S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
ALL OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE EXTREME NW. LINGERING MOISTURE
OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS AND THE UPPER TROUGH ARE GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 17N TO OVER
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES N OF MARTINIQUE. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRI AS
THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND FRI THAT WILL BECOME FRESH
TO LOCALLY STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

LINGERING MOISTURE AND THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING
LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ISLAND BETWEEN 70W-73W. MOISTURE WILL MOVE S AWAY
FROM THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT GIVING HISPANIOLA MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
FOR THU. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRI NIGHT GIVING THE
ISLAND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W TO
ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM NW OF THE FRONT
TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 24N61W TO JUST E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-
27N BETWEEN 52W-59W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E ATLC NEAR 32N25W
ALONG 28N36W TO 30N52W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO BEYOND
32N58W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS FRONT OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WITH A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 25N42W AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N25W. THE
LOW/SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL MEANDER
THROUGH LATE THU BEFORE SINKING SLOWLY S ACROSS N PORTIONS OF
THE W ATLC FRI AND SAT. WEAK REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM 32N62W ALONG 26N65W TO 29N81W SAT MORNING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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