[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 4N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N22W 3N32W 1N36W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 12W-16W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 29W-35W WITHIN CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 4N TO
S OF THE EQUATOR AND TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 35W-
51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER
FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N W OF
90W TO INLAND OVER EXTREME S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT
13/0900 UTC THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER ST. AUGUSTINE TO A
1017 MB LOW NEAR GAINSVILLE FLORIDA WITH A SECOND COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE 1017 MB LOW TO 29N85W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W
28N93W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS NEAR MATAGORDA BAY. A SQUALL LINE IS
CURRENTLY N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS
W OF 90W. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N GULF WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL GULF AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SE
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS
S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN E OF 83W. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE N/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH ARE GENERATING LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO OVER S HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-
73W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 16N TO OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW/SURFACE
TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF THE PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLANDS.
FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE
THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL INCREASE TO STRONG BREEZE EACH
NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS THU AND FRI.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ACROSS THE S PORTION OF ISLAND THIS MORNING BETWEEN 70W-73W.
MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE ISLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE
SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE HISPANIOLA SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SOME CLEARING ON
THU. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE ENGLAND INTO THE W ATLC N OF
30N IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS
THROUGH 32N77W TO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR ST. AUGUSTINE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E
OF THE FRONT. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM 28N65W THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 24N64W TO THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN
56W-62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE W ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT AND W OF THE TROUGH WITH
A1020 MB HIGH NEAR 33N71W. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NE ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 32N32W ALONG 31N39W TO 32N46W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF
THE IS FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
1016 MB LOW NEAR 31N78W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND
FROM 32N71W TO 29N78W TO HOBE SOUND THU NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE
FROM 32N63W ALONG 29N65W 26N72W TO HOBE SOUND FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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