[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED APR 13 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N13W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 3N21W 3N33W 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE ENTIRE
COAST OF LIBERIA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-34W AND FROM 4N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR AND TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 34W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION GIVING THE GULF W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER
FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE OVER THE W GULF WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-28N W OF 90W TO INLAND
OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E
CONUS TO CAROLINAS THEN INTO THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS SE GEORGIA THEN ALONG 30N
BETWEEN TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA AND NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO THE
COAST OF TEXAS NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER CONTINUING ACROSS S
TEXAS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 28N
BETWEEN FLORIDA AND TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE S GULF WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SINK S INTO THE
EXTREME NE GULF THROUGH WED THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE NW AND
N/CENTRAL GULF AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH
N/CENTRAL FLORIDA WED NIGHT THROUGH THU WHERE IT WILL STALL.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 76W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS
S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE
TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN AGAIN TONIGHT. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE N
CARIBBEAN COMBINED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND THE UPPER
TROUGH ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N OF 17N FROM MONA
PASSAGE TO CENTRAL CUBA INCLUDING JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH FRI AS THE LOW/SURFACE TROUGH DOMINATES THE AREA N OF
THE PUERTO RICO. FRESH TRADES WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG BREEZE EACH NIGHT. A FRESH E TO SE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU AND FRI.

HISPANIOLA...

LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS
THE S PORTION OF ISLAND TONIGHT. MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE
ISLAND THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO
WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY E-NE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE HISPANIOLA
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH SOME
CLEARING ON THU. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON FRI NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE E CONUS TO CAROLINAS THEN INTO
THE W ATLC N OF 30N IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE GEORGIA. A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N63W THROUGH A
1014 MB LOW NEAR 24N64W TO PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N66W. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 57W-63W WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-
22N BETWEEN 58W-64W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 56W-63W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC
E OF THE TROUGH. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY
THROUGH WED BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY E-NE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER GEORGIA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SE
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND EXTENDING FROM
32N79W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATE FROM
32N71W TO HOBE SOUND THU LEAVING A REMNANT TROUGH ALONG THE
FLORIDA E COAST THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW
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