[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 09 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IMMINENT
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 FEET TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO
12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/
FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS...AND ALONG PART OF THE COAST OF MOROCCO...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
CANARIAS UNTIL 10/0000 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 08N13W...TO 04N16W AND 01N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 01N20W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 04S38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 03N NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 07W...AND
WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 06N12W 03N20W 01N30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 02N TO 04N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N84W IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN EAST TEXAS 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGHB.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...VFR/NO CEILINGS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ORIGINATES IN COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. THE WIND FLOW CURVES NORTHEASTWARD...BEYOND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN IT MOVES TOWARD THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE...FROM 66W EASTWARD...FROM 17N TO
20N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND 80W INCLUDING COVERING PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 84W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS AND IN PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO/LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
RIDGE...WHOSE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA...WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
DURING DAY ONE. A TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN EAST-TO-
WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN
NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR DAY ONE...AND A MIXTURE OF
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND NORTHEAST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERN U.S.A. AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 78W...REACHING THE
BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN HALF OF CUBA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 30N78W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST THAT IS NEAR 28N80W...ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N82W IN FLORIDA...TO 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY OF CLOUDS
IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W
30N76W 29N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.07 IN BERMUDA.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N51W...TO 28N48W AND 23N47W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG
48W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 30N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
MOROCCO NEAR 23N16W...TO 19N28W 14N35W AND 06N50W. NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 48W FROM 25N BEYOND 32N.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
12N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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