[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082330
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NE OF THE
AREA WILL SUPPORT INCREASING WINDS TO GALE FORCE NW OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN...DUE TO THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING SUN AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER SURGE OF GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY
MON. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT DURING THE GALE FORCE WINDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 01N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N22W TO THE EQUATOR AT 26W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 10W-18W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS DIVING S ACROSS THE GULF EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA FROM NEAR 29N83W TO 27N90W TO THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR
27N98W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH THE FRONT. A
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN MEXICO EXTENDS A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO THE S-SE
MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SUNRISE SAT...PUSHING
COMPLETELY SE OF THE BASIN BY SAT EVENING. HIGH PRES RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE BASIN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO DOMINATE THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE FEATURES ARE ACROSS THE WATERS. OTHER
THAN THE INCREASING WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFFSHORE OF NW
COLOMBIA THIS WEEKEND...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HISPANIOLA...

ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH THE
COMBINATION OF EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAY TIME HEATING.
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SAT AND SAT
NIGHT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH HAITI SUN. THIS IS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IN THE NW PORTION EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE NE
FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE ACROSS
THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITH
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM 32N69W TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WILL MERGE WITH AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N59W TO 27N63W...
WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION WEAKENING AND BECOMING STATIONARY TO
NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
LOCATED TO THE E OF THE FRONT...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N56W TO
21N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NEAR THE AXIS.
THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS TO THE
E...REACHING FROM NEAR 32N51W TO 25N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THIS FRONT. THIS
FRONT WILL LIFT OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT INTO SAT. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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