[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 071108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU APR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
CANARIAS UNTIL 08/1200 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THAT FOLLOW 08/1200 UTC CONSISTS OF...PERSISTENCE OF NEAR GALE-
FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND TARFAYA...AND PERSISTENCE OF NEAR GALE-
FORCE OR GALE-FORCE WIND IN CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 07N12W TO 01N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N19W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 21W...TO 01S24W...CROSSING THE
EQUATOR ALONG 29W...TO 01N34W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 38W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM 01N22W TO 03N27W TO 04N31W TO 04N36W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 01N TO 05N FROM 16W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. SOME OF THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PART
OF A SEPARATE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE U.S.A. EAST COAST
AREA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALSO IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 26N NORTHWARD. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS
LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. THE FRONT EVENTUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY IN
THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND
WEST TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 27N TO 30N. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

A SEPARATE SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...
THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS DEVELOPED IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA
FROM 26N TO 29N. THEY HAVE MOVED ONSHORE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS STILL MAY BE COVERING FLORIDA FROM 28N TO
29N.

A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN GOVERNS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING
THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGUL...KIKT...KVOA...AND KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...IFR IN BROWNSVILLE. LIFR IN HARLINGEN. MVFR IN EDINBURG.
LIFR IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS...FROM CORPUS
CHRISTI TO ALICE. VFR/NO CEILINGS ELSEWHERE. THE FRONT IS
STATIONARY IN PARTS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND
IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOUISIANA...IFR IN NEW IBERIA AND
BATON ROUGE. LIFR AT THE HAMMOND NORTHSHORE REGIONAL AIRPORT
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. MVFR AT THE
NEW ORLEANS NAVAL AIR STATION JOINT RESERVE BASE. MISSISSIPPI
AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...RAIN HAS ENDED FOR THE
MOMENT IN BROOKSVILLE. LIGHT RAIN AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT...AND AT THE ST. PETE/CLEARWATER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N68W. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE EAST OF THE SAME LINE.

A STATIONARY FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST...AND IT CONTINUES TO 17N79W TO THE SOUTH OF
JAMAICA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. FEW TO SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED-TO-BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 15N60W 15N70W 13N77W
10N80W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1600 FEET. PUNTA CANA...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A CLOUD CEILING AT 8000 FEET...VFR.
SANTIAGO...SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 1600 FEET. PUERTO PLATA...A
CLOUD CEILING AT 1700 FEET...MVFR.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING NORTHWEST WIND TO
HISPANIOLA IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA NORTHWARD...BEYOND JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF
DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
BORDER AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA EASTWARD
BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. EXPECT WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N60W 22N65W...TO THE COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W...CUTTING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO
17N79W TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N55W
24N58W...TO THE EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 22N60W. CLUSTERS OF
LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN
62W AND 79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS PART OF THE REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS FOLLOWING WHAT
IS NOW THE STATIONARY FRONT. THAT TROUGH IS ALONG 24N/25N
BETWEEN 65W AND 80W AT THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.
STRATIFORM CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N NORTHWARD
AND FROM 60W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N10W TO 28N26W...TO A
22N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N39W AND 06N49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N50W 21N56W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FROM 07N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY
FRONT/28N55W 24N58W SURFACE TROUGH.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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