[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070507
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 07 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...THAT IS
LISTED UNDER THE FOLLOWING LINKS...MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...OR ON THE WEBSITE...
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. EXPECT GALE-FORCE WINDS IN AGADIR AND
CANARIAS UNTIL 08/0000 UTC. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
THAT FOLLOW 08/0000 UTC CONSISTS OF...THE THREAT OF GALE-FORCE
WIND IN AGADIR AND CANARIAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 05N09W TO 01N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 01N20W...
REACHING THE EQUATOR ALONG 22W...CONTINUING ALONG THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 22W AND 35W...TO 03S50W INLAND IN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 01N TO 03N BETWEEN 23W AND
25W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N FROM 22W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. SOME OF THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS PART
OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH THAT IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ALSO IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 27N NORTHWARD
FROM 84W WESTWARD. A COLD FRONT CUTS ACROSS LOUISIANA...TO THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE
BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

IFR CONDITIONS...KEMK.

MVFR CONDITIONS...KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS...VFR/NO CEILINGS. LOUISIANA...MVFR IN PORT FOURCHON.
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...VFR/NO CEILINGS. FLORIDA...MVFR TO
IFR IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SANTO
DOMINGO...MVFR CEILING...1600 FEET. LA ROMANA/PUNTA CANA...FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. SANTIAGO/PUERTO PLATA...RAIN AND MVFR
CEILINGS IN EACH CITY.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING NORTHWEST WIND TO
HISPANIOLA IN ITS WAKE. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF
URABA OF COLOMBIA NORTHWARD...BEYOND JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA. EXPECT NORTHWEST WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING DAY ONE OF
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA DURING DAY TWO. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTH-TO-SOUTH
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL BE ACROSS PUERTO RICO. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW
AT THE START OF DAY ONE WILL BECOME WEST WIND FLOW AT THE END OF
DAY ONE. AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE
BORDER AREA OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA EASTWARD
BEYOND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. EXPECT WEST-TO-
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT AN NORTHEAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL CUT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. EXPECT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...MOSTLY FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND FROM 80W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.04 IN
GUADELOUPE.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SPREADING
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE FIRST COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 27N53W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY
AND IT CONTINUES FROM 27N53W TO 22N65W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. A SECOND FRONT IS DISSIPATING COLD FROM
31N56W TO 25N64W...AND DISSIPATING STATIONARY FROM 25N64W TO THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W TO 26N59W TO 20N62W...AND FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
79W INCLUDING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. STRATIFORM CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N NORTHWARD AND FROM 60W
WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 07/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.11 IN BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N10W TO 28N26W...TO A
22N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 13N39W AND 06N49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N NORTHWARD FROM 50W EASTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 28N45W 24N50W AND
18N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...FROM 07N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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