[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 261131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
the Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America.
This system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico later
this weekend, and will begin to interact with an upper-level low
located near the Texas coast.  This interaction should result in the
development of a broad and complex area of low pressure that moves
northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week.  Although
environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for
tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance is likely to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf coast and
southeastern United States early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic
Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves toward the north or north-northwest.  Upper-level
winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development after
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kimberlain
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