[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 260537
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Ida, located a little more than 1000 miles east-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,
Yucatan Peninsula, and northern portions of Central America.  This
system is expected to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico during the
next day or two, and it will begin to interact with an upper-level
low located near the Texas coast.  This interaction will likely
lead to the development of a broad and complex area of low pressure
that moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, but
environmental conditions are not expected to be particularly
conducive for this system to become a tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms over the western
Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles south-southwest of Bermuda are
associated with an upper-level low and a surface trough.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
while it moves slowly toward the north or north-northwest.  Upper-
level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development after
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Berg
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