[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 241114
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 24/0900 UTC IS NEAR 19.6N
45.5W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST...OR 90 DEGREES...5 KNOTS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE
WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W FROM 14N SOUTHWARD.
IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE-
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE
DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
17N19W 15N23W 13N27W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL AND THE GAMBIA NEAR 13N17W...TO 10N23W 08N30W AND
07N37W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N19W 15N23W 13N27W. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W...THROUGH 26N86W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N85W 24N87W
19N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N91W 18N94W IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF 22N81W 16N88W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN
THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH...AND AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 25N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 09N IN COLOMBIA
TO 11N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 85W/86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... PLEASE
REFER TO THE THIRD PARAGRAPH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION...WITH
INFORMATION ABOUT THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA...
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A HONDURAS-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE...AND
THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 18 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH A 62W/63W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N79W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 80W AND GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG COVERS THE
WATERS AND ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W
AND 80W...INCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
GREAT ABACO ISLAND. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM CUBA
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W AND FLORIDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 55W
AND 73W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO NORTHWARD
TO 32N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 30N30W...TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 26N40W...TO 23N44W...TO 19N45W NEAR TROPICAL STORM IDA.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 300 NM TO
500 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 33N22W-TO-19N45W TROUGH. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...AND FROM 32N TO 33N
BETWEEN 19W AND 20W. THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS NEAR T.S. IDA
IS COVERED SEPARATELY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 36N30W TO 32N50W TO 29N61W...TO
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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