[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 240602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 24/0300 UTC IS NEAR 19.9N
46.0W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST...OR 90 DEGREES...4 KNOTS.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE
WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 180 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N23W 13N25W 10N26W.
IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE-
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE
DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG IS FROM 05N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF
MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N17W...TO 13N20W 10N23W 08N30W AND
08N34W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 08N TO
11N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 10N TO
12N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W...THROUGH 26N86W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N85W 24N87W
19N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N97W 21N96W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 20N78.5W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH...AND AWAY FROM THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE 25N65W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 79W AND 82W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN 73W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 85W/86W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 09N74W AND
08N78W NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE FROM 16N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA...
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W IN THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A HONDURAS-TO-CUBA-TO-FLORIDA RIDGE...AND
THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE
AREA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 18 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 25N65W CYCLONIC CENTER. WEST-TO-
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR
THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WITH A 62W/63W RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE 48
HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO A 1011 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N80W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...A
LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN GUADELOUPE.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N65W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 55W AND 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N20W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD
FROM 40W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 31N08W TO 20N19W 18N28W 25N44W. A 1015 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N66W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 58W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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