[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 231047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 23/0900 UTC IS NEAR 20.4N
47.2W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH...OR 180 DEGREES...2
KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE
BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER THE
AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 2170 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM TO 360 NM
FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. IT IS DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS
TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW
IN THE DEEP TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN LAND AND 20W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS MORE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
AND THE GAMBIA NEAR 14N17W TO 10N22W...08N30W...AND 07N36W. NO
ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN LAND
AND 20W...AND FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 28W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS IN THIS AREA IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN
THIS AREA IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
31N85W...THROUGH 26N87W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N84W 26N86W
23N87W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N83W 24N84W 21N90W
18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 22N81W IN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH...THROUGH 17N76W TO 12N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE GULF OF URABA AND COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR
09N77W TO 10N79W 12N81W 14N83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 85W IN COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 09N74W AND 08N78W
NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA...
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE 24N64W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA.

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 33N75W...TO 30N78W AND 27N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N77W 32N78W 31N79W 30N80W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 73W AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN
BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N64W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N20W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD
FROM 40W EASTWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 30N TO 35N BETWEEN 15W AND 22W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
27N NORTHWARD FROM 52W EASTWARD. A 1015 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 31N63W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 20N TO 33N BETWEEN 55W AND 72W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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