[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA AT 23/0300 UTC IS NEAR 20.9N
46.8W. IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...OR 120
DEGREES...2 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45
KNOTS. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA ARE BEING
ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT35 KNHC...AND UNDER THE AWIPS
HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA
ARE BEING ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC...AND UNDER
THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A RADIUS OF 270 NM FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 360 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM FROM THE
CENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST FOR THE WAVE IS TO DE-AMPLIFY AS IT
MOVES INTO A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. IT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW IN THE DEEP
TROPICS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
28W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN
THIS AREA IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MAURITANIA NEAR 20N16W...
THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W...TO 10N22W
08N27W AND 09N34W. NO ITCZ IS PRESENT AT THIS TIME. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 04N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 28W. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF THE 22W/23W TROPICAL
WAVE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN
THIS AREA IS MORE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR
30N86W...THROUGH 26N88W...TO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N86W 24N88W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...TO THE WEST OF 30N83W 24N87W 19N92W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR.

A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 22N81W IN CUBA TO CENTRAL BELIZE. THIS CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TROUGH...THROUGH 17N76W TO 12N66W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 13N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES FROM THE AREAS
THAT ARE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW APPROACHES HISPANIOLA FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...AND WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 70W AND 71W.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BEING
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA AT THE
START OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE
EXPERIENCED DURING DAY TWO. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT
WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT TROPICAL STORM IDA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N78W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE 1012 MB LOW CENTER TO 29N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 23/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.08 IN BERMUDA.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W
AND 71W...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 20N22W 20N35W
26N46W...AND BEYOND 32N54W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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