[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 1000 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 28N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 25N92W AND 18N93W. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET TO
THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE
FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 09N20W AND 06N24W AND
05N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N30W TO 06N40W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 13N
BETWEEN 18W AND 19W OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN AN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY THE
POINTS FROM 09N20W TO 04N21W TO 05N32W TO 09N20W. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 15N40W 09N42W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 43W...AND FROM 05N TO 10N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE U.S.A. GULF
COAST STATES FROM 25N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 89W AND 100W. THE ENTIRE
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A 1000 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND A DEVELOPED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N93W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS NEAR
30N93W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO 30N88W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N93W TO 24N92W AND 18N93W AT THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE BETWEEN 88W AND 90W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N78W...TO 27N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 19N80W IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA...TO A 27N67W
ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO HISPANIOLA...TO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN THE
MONA PASSAGE AND 77W.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT IS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE BERMUDA-TO-
HISPANIOLA TROUGH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...THE
LAST OBSERVATION FROM 26/0000 UTC SHOWED SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE 26/0000 UTC OBSERVATION
FOR BARAHONA SHOWED FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS. BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AFTER FOUR OBSERVATIONS OF
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. RAINSHOWERS
WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA AND IN PUNTA CANA.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AFTER
FIVE OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...ARE IN SANTIAGO.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS AND THEN A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AFTER ONE
OBSERVATION OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER...IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD
AT 30 TO 36 HOURS OF THE OVERALL 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA SOLIDLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL
COVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUARTER OF HISPANIOLA...AND ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE REST OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...
AS ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 10N80W...
BEYOND 09N84W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 76W AND THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE
BERMUDA-TO-27N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER-TO HISPANIOLA
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO
31N59W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N59W TO 25N65W. A
SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N65W TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 53W AND 58W...FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 90 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N59W TO 24N63W...TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N67W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF AFRICA. THE TROUGH IS
COMPARATIVELY NARROWER ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF IT NEAR
MOROCCO...AND WITHIN 300 NM OF THE COAST OF SENEGAL AND ACROSS
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT ITS SOUTHERN END. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
FROM A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N09W...TO
29N12W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 19W OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 23W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 56W. A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net