[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 25 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER TX SUPPORTS A 999 MB
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N94W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S OF THE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS SEVERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED OVER THE NW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS BEGINS ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N15W TO 06N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-14N
AND E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS A 999 MB SURFACE LOW
LOCATED NEAR 29N94W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO
24N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 22N93W TO 18N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
PREVAILS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL GULF
BETWEEN 85W-94W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED E OF 85W. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTEROMETER
DATA DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE SE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
E GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE S AND E ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ENHANCING
CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
AT ABOUT 350 NM E OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS EXTENDS ITS TROUGH S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-78W. A DIFFLUENT
FLOW PREVAILS E OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 74W AFFECTING
PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THEIR ADJACENT
WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS ACTIVITY
EXTENDING FROM 15N71W TO 18N67W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ISLAND FROM THE SW
ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS LIMITING CONVECTION OVER THE
ISLAND TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. EXPECT
A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW ATLANTIC NEAR 24N67W
WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING SW ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED JUST N OF
OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE
LOW TO 25N62W. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS E
OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 54W-61W. S OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION S OF 22N
BETWEEN 62W-68W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 14N40W
TO 10N41W WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A SURFACE RIDGE PREVAILS
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED N OF OUR AREA NEAR 32N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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