[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200526
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN
MEXICO...LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS
SUPPORTING GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
VERACRUZ...MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 08N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR
10N39W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-17N BETWEEN
17W-31W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-13N BETWEEN
31W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE SE
GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N87W TO 25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG
THE FRONT. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N97W TO 18N94W WITH ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND IN THE VICINITY OF IT AFFECTING
THE SE COAST OF MEXICO. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE A GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF EXCEPT THE SW
GULF WATERS S OF 21N AND W OF 95W WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BEGIN WEAKENING WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE.
DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA COVERING THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN WHILE AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS NE ACROSS THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE...A SURFACE TROUGH PREVAILS
ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO 17N87W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH MAINLY W OF 83W SUPPORTED BY A DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A
SIMILAR DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ALSO NOTED OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA
SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS AND
ADJACENT WATERS. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN INHIBITING CONVECTION EXCEPT DIURNAL
ACTIVITY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES
PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN AS NOTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS... CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

A DIFFLUENT FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND SUPPORTING ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THIS PATTERN COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE MORE CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 25N79W TO 31N53W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
IS SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM 23N61W TO 31N53W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAIL ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
MAINLY W OF 50W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT ABOUT 330NM E
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 15N55W TO 10N55W. A
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 44W-53W. FURTHER E...A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC REACHING NW AFRICA FROM
24N29W TO 24N16W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT. NEAR
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 32N E OF 15W DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE SE OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
W ATLANTIC AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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