[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO...
LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WATERS IS
SUPPORTING NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE N TO NW WINDS ALONG THE COAST
OF VERACRUZ...MAINLY S OF 21N W OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
14N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 09N25W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 12N31W
TO ANOTHER 1012 MB LOW NEAR 11N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 18N BETWEEN 21W AND 33W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 21W...AND
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC AND SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID
ATLC STATES OF THE US CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT
CROSSES S FL NEAR MIAMI TO THE S CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO NE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 24N97W TO 17N91W. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER E MEXICO AND LOWER PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A
PORTION OF THE SW GULF. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE S GULF. THE FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE THROUGH MID WEEK. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIKELY S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND OVER THE SW GULF
WHERE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE RESIDES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER GUATEMALA TO
BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE COMBINATION OF DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE...CONVERGENCE OF
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TRADE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N22N BETWEEN 84W AND
89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...INHIBITING
CONVECTION EXCEPT DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...
THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER
THE ISLAND WILL DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND
A DEEP MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NW ATLC
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR
AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N57W TO 27N70W TO S FL NEAR MIAMI. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SE OF THE COLD FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM
31N56W TO 23N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM
W AND 300 NM SE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A 1012 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 11N55W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N55W TO THE LOW CENTER
TO 09N55W. THIS SURFACE FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NE TO 20N53W. THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS ACTING TO DISPLACE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER AND
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE WELL TO THE EAST.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 17N BETWEEN 43W AND
55W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING FROM 31N38W TO 28N37W. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS ACROSS NW AFRICA AND OVER THE ATLC NEAR 25N15W TO
25N30W. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE N OF 32N E OF 15W DUE
TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THE SE OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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