[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051752
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 35.2N 64.5W AT 05/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 170 NM N OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
34N-39N BETWEEN 61W-70W. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE LATEST
FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N30W TO 10N33W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH SHORTWAVE 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-
36W WITH A MAXIMUM IN 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY SURROUNDING THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN
30W-36W WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 03N-11N
BETWEEN 25W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 11N44W TO
20N42W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB
TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-47W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 05N35W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN 09W-14W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF CENTERED NEAR 23N94W...WHILE A VIGOROUS AND BROAD UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N79W.
SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE STACKED
LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N91W. THE SECONDARY WAVE IS ANALYZED AS A
SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NEAR 28N82W TO 26N92W. A
THIRD WAVE OF ENERGY REMAINS INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A 1006 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR31N79W TO 31N87W. GIVEN THE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...
HOWEVER SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING MAINLY E OF 90W. OTHERWISE...GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SW NORTH ATLC BEGINS TO MOVE NE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WINDS WILL SHIFT
MORE N-NE AND REMAIN IN THE GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE RANGE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN AS NW FLOW CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N94W. IN
RESPONSE TO THE STABILITY...A 1014 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
17N85W. ONLY ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
NOTED S OF 10N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA TO SOUTH OF PANAMA NEAR 07N80W TO WEST OF COSTA RICA
NEAR 09N87W. ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 15N74W WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF 66W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING SE OF THE
GRENADINES AND S OF BARBADOS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 54W-61W.
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES CONTINUE E OF 80W WITH THE
STRONG WINDS NOTED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT E OF 80W IS EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT INCREASING WINDS INTO THE FRESH TO STRONG
RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 65W-77W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
NEAR 30N79W THAT SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR 31N79W WITH A PARTIAL OCCLUSION AND A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 31N76W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W TO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL
LIFTING DYNAMICS AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 26N
W OF 72W. TO THE NORTHEAST...HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE WATERS NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION BETWEEN 58W-72W.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 23N63W PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT. AS A RESULT OF THE DIFFLUENCE...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 54W-67W. A 1013 MB
SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N50W AND IS PROVIDING LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 27N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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