[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051146
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS CENTERED NEAR 34.6N 64.6W AT 05/1200 UTC OR
ABOUT 140 NM N OF BERMUDA MOVING NNE AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75
KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 32N-
37N BETWEEN 61W-67W. SEE THE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE LATEST
FULL NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/
WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 20N39W TO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N43W.
THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-46W AND IT
IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 41W-46W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 07N26W TO A SURFACE
LOW NEAR 10N43W TO 11N46W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
TO 11N56W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N AND E 0F 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 25W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W GULF OF MEXICO
CENTERED NEAR 24N95W...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N80W EXTENDS ACROSS THE E GULF WATERS. A
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN
EXTENDING FROM 24N91W TO 26N81W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN
100 NM OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF FROM 22N94W TO 22N87W TO 24N80W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. SCATTEROMETER DATA
DEPICTS GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAILING ACROSS THE
AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE E GULF. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY THEN
TRANSITION INTO A SURFACE TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WATERS IS
APPROACHING THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. A WEAK
1013 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA CENTERED
NEAR 17N85W. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
THE W-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N82W TO 19N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 18N BETWEEN 75W-77W AFFECTING E JAMAICA.
SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS S OF 14N BETWEEN 67W-73W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AT THIS TIME. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ISLAND DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES
SECTION ABOVE FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 27N80W TO A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N80W.
THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
30N81W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-31N AND W
OF 75W. TO THE E...UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 52W-64W. A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N52W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 28N55W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 28N46W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOW FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 49W-53W. A TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE
LOW ARE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 22N50W AND A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 26N33W.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS THE FEATURES PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED OVER
THAT AREA PREVAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net