[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 20 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

GALE-FORCE WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH ARE PRESENT...FROM
29N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 54W AND 57W. EXPECT SEA HEIGHTS TO RANGE
FROM 12 FEET TO 17 FEET. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N53W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N53W 18N54W AND 16N59W...TO 14N67W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W. A 1004
MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N52W...MOVING SOUTHWARD 10
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N49W TO
26N53W TO 26N60W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 31N43W TO 25N49W
AND COLD FRONT TO 21N54W TO 19N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
27N44W 23N46W 21N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 29N42W 25N43W 22N45W 17N48W.
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL MEXICO...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 16N73W 09N72W FOR
THE 19/1800 UTC SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS BECAME WEAK AND IT
DISSIPATED. IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS FOR
20/0000 UTC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
17N TO 19N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN PARTS OF HAITI AND ITS
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
08N14W 05N30W 05N40W 09N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N BETWEEN
10W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A.
INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...FLORIDA NEAR
30N83W...TO 27N86W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 27N86W TO
25N95W 23N96W AND 19N95W. MULTILAYERED MOISTURE IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W TO 27N81W 24N90W...BEYOND 22N98W INTO
INTERIOR MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W TO 26N79W...AND IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 20N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN LAND AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO ELSEWHERE FROM 28N SOUTHWARD.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA...
BEYOND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 72W AND 74W IN PARTS OF HAITI AND ITS SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS WEAKENED AND
DISSIPATED. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH...32N53W 21N53W 18N54W 16N59W...TO
14N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL
FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER WILL START NEAR 22N75W AND END NEAR 17N74W AT 48 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...IT WILL BE FROM
THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES...FROM THE NORTH AT TIMES...AND FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT OTHER TIMES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB
SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO RIDGE.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N84W...RIGHT AT THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA...NEAR THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL SECTION.
THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPENT THE LAST FEW DAYS IN THE WATERS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING THROUGH THE SAME COASTAL AREA
OF NICARAGUA. MIDDLE LEVEL EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW COVERS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10.5N TO
14.5N...BETWEEN 83W AND 88W...FROM NORTHERN COSTA RICA...ACROSS
NICARAGUA INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND INCLUDING THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N/10N FROM 73W IN COLOMBIA AND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N TO 10N FROM 90W
EASTWARD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.39 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.17 IN CURACAO.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 18N52W 14N55W 11N56W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS
TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO
16N BETWEEN 40W AND THE 32N53W 16N59W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N26W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 08N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 26N32W TO 14N46W AND
12N48W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 28N72W...CURVING TO
23N66W AND TO DOMINICA IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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