[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N73W TO 09N72W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO SW TO 10N83W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.
ISOLATED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY OVER VENEZUELA S OF 13N
BETWEEN 69W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N13W TO
06N30W TO 08N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 13W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE NE
GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 27N87W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM
THIS POINT EXTENDING TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 23N97W THEN TO
19N94W. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO
EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF. WITH THIS...A DIFFLUENT FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF 88W AFFECTING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 21N-25N AND W OF 94W IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS N OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHILE
A LIGHT TO GENTLE SE WINDS PREVAIL S OF THE FRONTS. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E  ACROSS THE
E GULF WITH CONVECTION. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO
EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. PLEASE
REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO NEAR 18N94W AND EXTENDS EASTWARD
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. TO THE S...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION S OF 14N BETWEEN 80W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS ITS AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ACROSS PUERTO RICO
THEN SW TO 10N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 12N
BETWEEN 77W-81W AND ISOLATED CONVECTION PREVAILS S OF 65W AND E
OF 77W. SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTS LIGHT TO GENTLE TRADES ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT W OF 76W WHERE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES
PREVAIL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE E SUPPORTING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO A STRONG
N-NE FLOW ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS
PROVIDING FOR A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC
MAINLY W OF 74W. WITH THIS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N AND W OF 73W WITHIN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 68W. TO
THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 34N53W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FOCUSED ON A 1007 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N48W AND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED TO THE NW AS A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 32N51W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 1004 MB LOW TO 27N54W TO 28N60W. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW TO 23N52W TO 20N60W.
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO THE NE TO 31N44W. A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 27N45W TO 18N52W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE
VICINITY OF ALL THESE FEATURES MAINLY N OF 19N BETWEEN 42W-50W.
TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N51W TO 09N56W WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB
HIGH CENTERED W OF THE COAST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR
38N17W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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