[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191159
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 15N
SOUTHWARD AT 19/0000 UTC HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 51W/52 FROM 08N TO 14N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 06N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 19N IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO VENEZUELA BETWEEN THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA AND LA PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 15N75W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND
76W...AND FROM 10N TO 13NBETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE TO THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS IS ALONG 12N15W IN COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 07N20W 04N30W AND
03N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 03N TO 08N AFRICA AND 40W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N23W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE 30N24W 10N36W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY IN THE PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS...TO 27N90W 23N94W AND 18N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MEXICO JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
BORDER WITH THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 32N83W IN SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO 30N85W
TO 27N89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOUD BAND THAT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COLD FRONT.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
EASTWARD.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES...AND SOME COASTAL
STATIONS...THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

CLOUD CEILINGS THAT RANGE IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 FEET TO 9000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KHHV...KVAF...KGBK...KEIR...KSPR...
KMDJ...KVOA...KVKY...KMIS...AND KBVE.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGBK...KATP...
KGRY...KIKT...AND KIPN.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N75W TO
THE CENTRAL COAST OF COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 15N
NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 13N TO 19N. A
1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 13N.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
SOUTHWESTWARD...ACROSS SOUTHERN NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
THE MONA PASSAGE TO 15N76W TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS/
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 76W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA
CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW WILL FOLLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR ABACO ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...AND IT WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA AT THE END OF 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN BERMUDA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO
24N53W...TOWARD THE EASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO
26N60W 29N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 29N71W TO
32N75W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N75W NORTHWESTWARD. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N46W 25N54W 20N60W. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
BETWEEN THE LINE FROM 32N50W TO 23N58W TO 19N61W TO THE MONA
PASSAGE AND THE LINE FROM 30N73W 23N80W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N45W 25N52W 22N58W 18N64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 25N50W 18N63W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 38N15W...THROUGH 32N23W TO 27N29W 24N35W AND 21N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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