[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W FROM 15N SOUTHWARD.
THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24
HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
11N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W FROM 19N THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE PENINSULA DE
PARAGUANA OF VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20
KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 14N78W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 68W AND 71W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR 10N17W TO 04N37W TO 08N48W AND 08N59W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 08N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 09W AND 31W...AND
ELSEWHERE FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 38W AND 56W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N23W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND THE CYCLONIC
CENTER FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 31W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 25W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 30N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LINE 30N24W 10N36W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N52W TO 08N52W. THE WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT IS IN THE AREA OF THE ITCZ IS BEING ENHANCED BY THIS TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 18N32W TO 10N33W. THIS TROUGH IS
COMING INTO PHASE WITH THE 24N23W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
AND ITS TROUGH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THE CENTRAL U.S.A. IS
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N85W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...TO 27N91W...TO 23N98W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CLOUD BAND THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W
EASTWARD.

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS
FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO 17N75W
14N78W...TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD...MOVING THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 12N TO
16N. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 12N.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WESTWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER AREA OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 76W AND 78W NEAR THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 79W AND NICARAGUA. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHEASTERN
COASTAL NICARAGUA.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AT 18/2300 UTC. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LIGHT
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER AT BARAHONA AT 19/0000 UTC. SCATTERED
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO
DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW WILL FOLLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA. AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR ABACO ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...AND IT WILL MOVE TO JAMAICA AT THE END OF 48 HOURS.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.06 IN
GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN BERMUDA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
26N58W 22N63W...EVENTUALLY TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N44W TO 29N50W 27N65W 29N71W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 29N71W BEYOND 32N75W. A SEPARATE AND DISSIPATING
COLD FRONT IS ALONG 30N46W 27N50W 24N60W 23N67W 24N71W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N45W 26N52W...TO 20N59W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 26N50W 18N63W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 38N14W...THROUGH 32N23W TO 26N31W 20N42W AND
20N60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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