[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE KATE IS CENTERED NEAR 36.8N 60.5W AT 11/1500 UTC OR
ABOUT 340 NM NE OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 680 NM SSW OF CAPE RACE
NEWFOUNDLAND...MOVING NE AT 39 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 985 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 80 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 35N TO 43N
BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 15N65W TO S AMERICA NEAR 05N66W...MOVING W AT 15
TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO HIGH MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME IT IS
DIFFICULT TO SEE A PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE IN THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL ANALYSIS. IN FACT...THE 700 MB GFS STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THIS WAVE MAY BE CLOSER TO 68W. THEREFORE...
CURRENT LOCATION IS MAINLY BASED OFF OF CONTINUITY AND SATELLITE
TRENDS. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AN AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 19N82W TO 09N80W...MOVING W AT AROUND 20 KT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE WAVE HAS MERGED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT WAS OVER THIS REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A ENVIRONMENT OF VERY HIGH MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM
14N84W TO 10N76W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
05N35W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 03N45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC TO S FL TO THE SW GULF FROM 26N81W TO
23N85W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N93W. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE NE GULF
SUPPORTING MODERATE NE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF N OF THE
FRONT AND MODERATE TO FRESH SE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL
AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS...THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
AND DISSIPATE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF ON
THURSDAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
COLD FRONT AS IT CROSSES THE GULF BASIN THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS GENERATING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS COVER THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

SHALLOW MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GENERALLY FAIR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N72W TO THE
FL EAST COAST NEAR 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N64W TO 22N66W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST TO THE SE WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM
24N59W TO 19N57W. NO CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT
THROUGH 31N45W TO 28N55W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT
THROUGH 31N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED. FARTHER EAST...A
1016 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N31W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 27N33W. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 275 NM S AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
HURRICANE KATE IS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE
SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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