[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

KATE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KATE AT 11/0900 UTC IS NEAR 36.0N
65.7W...OR ABOUT 225 NM TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA. KATE IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 55 DEGREES...35 KNOTS. NO
COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. BERMUDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 998 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 65 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 35N TO 38N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SWELLS
FROM KATE WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA THIS MORNING...AND THEY
WILL CONTINUE DURING THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. IT IS LIKELY FOR
THESE SWELLS TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KATE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 14N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 11N64W.

A WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 09N76W...MOVING WESTARD 15
TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF URABA TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND
80W. PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THIS SAME AREA 6 HOURS AGO.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN INLAND TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W FROM 18N SOUTHWARD...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 77W WESTWARD
AND IN BELIZE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS MORE
DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS INLAND AND DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA
NEAR 09N13W...TO 07N17W AND 07N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
07N23W TO 06N30W AND 05N39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 3N TO 11N FROM 37W EASTWARD...AND FROM 08N TO 11N
BETWEEN 50W AND 61W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 40W/41W FROM 02N TO 06N...BASED ON
ASCAT-B HIGH RESOLUTION SCATTEROMETER DATA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND BEYOND NORTHWESTERN CUBA...TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N74W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...TO 23N86W. THE FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 23N86W TO 20N94W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN
64W AND 80W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE MEXICO COAST ALONG 23N. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE
TROUGH.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO...ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 250
MB TO 500 MB...COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 100 MB TO 250 MB COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CUBA INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A
RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W
AND THE CUBA-TO-GULF OF HONDURAS TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEEP LAYER TROUGH.

CURRENT CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS REMAIN IN SANTO DOMINGO...AFTER SIX STRAIGHT
OBSERVATIONS OF RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ABOUT 100 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA DURING THAT TIME FRAME EVENTUALLY WILL BE REPLACED BY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AT 48 HOURS WILL
CONSIST OF A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS FORECAST TO BE
NEAR 18N60W...AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 16N81W. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF
THOSE TWO FEATURES. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR 25N68W DURING DAY TWO. EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH SOME MINOR VARIATIONS OF
NORTHEASTERLY AND/OR SOUTHEASTERLY FROM TIME TO TIME. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TWO-DAY FORECAST.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL BE ALONG
24N/25N.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 09N84W IN
COSTA RICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND
THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE
WATERS FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF URABA...NEAR THE JAMAICA-TO-COLOMBIA TROPICAL WAVE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
11/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...ARE 0.27 IN
CURACAO...0.24 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.04 IN TEGUCIGALPA
IN HONDURAS.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO
24N20W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
34N30W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N32W...TO
26N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
24N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO
21N32W 12N40W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO A
1020 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 30N43W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N50W AND
30N57W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 30N57W BEYOND
32N58W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
FROM 32N TO 34N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 19N TO 26N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 23N BETWEEN 65W
AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE FROM 22N TO
29N BETWEEN 61W AND 67W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N56W 19N55W 16N54W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
16N TO 24N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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