[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061157
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND
37W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 06N40W...AND
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W.

THE 58W/59W ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS
BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AND COMBINED/MERGED WITH THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH OF SIX HOURS AGO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE NOW IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 19N SOUTHWARD. UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF
THE WAVE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 23N
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN
THE SAME AREA AS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 48W AND 66W.

A SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 24N90W...TO 20N88W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W...TO 15N86W IN HONDURAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N95W IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N NORTHWARD
BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 97W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 11N20W 09N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
09N22W TO 08N30W 08N38W 06N40W 06N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 03N TO 09N BETWEEN 13W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA BETWEEN FLORIDA AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...TO 28N97W ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS ALONG 63W/64W NOW...AND ITS NEARBY
PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AN 82W RIDGE
WILL MOVE TO 85W/86W DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...TO 17N70W AND 14N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HAITI TO 16N72W 15N68W 14N62W. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THIS
SAME TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD JUST ENOUGH IN
ORDER TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME UNTIL THE
END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A FLORIDA-TO-CUBA-TO-JAMAICA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS
OF DAY ONE...OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO EASTERLY FOR 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
FOR ALL OF DAY TWO. A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO ALSO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A RIDGE
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO JAMAICA.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME DURING DAY ONE. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END OF THE TWO
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 09N80W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS IN AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO 12N80W TO
09N77W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N BETWEEN 24W AND 78W. A COLD FRONT...THAT
IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES THROUGH 32N28W
TO 26N40W 24N51W 26N64W AND 32N72W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS
WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 39W AND 49W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 32N25W 24N40W 22N54W 26N70W 32N74W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 35N62W THROUGH 32N56W TO 27N40W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N15W TO 27N20W 24N32W AND 22N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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