[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 060552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE AREA BOUNDED
BY THE POINTS FROM 10N36W TO 07N33W TO 05N36W TO 07N40W TO
10N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W FROM 18N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE AREA OF THE WAVE FROM 12N
SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 12N TO 23N BETWEEN 50W AND
60W. MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE SAME AREA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 64W/65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
10N TO 21N BETWEEN 45W AND 65W.

A SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL
WAVE IS ALONG 24N90W...TO 20N88W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO A
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N87W...TO 16N86W AT THE COAST OF
HONDURAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
16N94W IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 16N84W 17N84W 19N84W 21N85W...FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN
84W AND 88W FROM THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF CUBA...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FROM 25N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN 88W AND 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GAMBIA
NEAR 13N17W TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N21W TO 07N30W
06N40W AND 06N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 06N
NORTHWARD...FROM 04N TO 05N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
20W AND 30W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 20W EASTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....AND THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 78W AND 86W.

ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
AREA BETWEEN FLORIDA AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND...TO 28N93W...AND TO 19N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

...HISPANIOLA...AND THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO-TO-THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
THE 58W/59W TROPICAL WAVE AND ITS NEARBY PRECIPITATION.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 64W/65W FROM 16N TO 21N...IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 63W
AND 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 64W/65W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ARE MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

CURRENT CONDITIONS...IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA...
FOLLOWING HEAVY RAINSHOWERS DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.
FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A SEPARATE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AN 82W RIDGE
WILL MOVE TO 85W/86W DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS. A TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...TO 17N70W AND 14N63W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE
TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM HAITI TO 16N72W 15N68W 14N62W. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THIS
SAME TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE WESTWARD JUST ENOUGH IN
ORDER TO ALLOW SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME UNTIL THE
END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
500 MB SHOWS THAT A FLORIDA-TO-CUBA-TO-JAMAICA RIDGE WILL PUSH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS
OF DAY ONE...OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND WILL SHIFT
TO EASTERLY FOR 6 HOURS OR SO. THE WIND WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY
FOR ALL OF DAY TWO. A FEW INVERTED TROUGHS WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA DURING DAY TWO ALSO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700
MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A RIDGE
THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS TO JAMAICA.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD WITH TIME DURING DAY ONE. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AT 42 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND REMAIN ACROSS HISPANIOLA UNTIL THE END OF THE TWO
DAY FORECAST PERIOD.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
06/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 08N81W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND THE COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS...INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF
THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IS IN AN AREA OF ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N75W
13N79W 16N81W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N BETWEEN 24W AND 78W. A COLD FRONT...THAT
IS SUPPORTED BY THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...PASSES THROUGH 32N29W
TO 27N40W 25N53W AND 31N71W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS WITHIN 30
NM TO 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN 39W AND 49W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 27N37W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 27N37W 23N48W 22N56W
26N68W 32N74W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 36N63W THROUGH 32N57W TO 27N48W.

A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N16W TO 26N24W 23N33W AND 21N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT
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