[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240540
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE AFRICAN EXTENDING FROM 11N32W TO
3N33W MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE WAVE WHILE A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND
DUST IS N OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
WAVE AXIS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N16W TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N19W TO
5N32W. THE ITCZ RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AT 5N34W TO THE
COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 0N-3N BETWEEN 0W-
4W...FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 10W-13W...AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 17W-
22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 36W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA AT
38N73W PRODUCING 10-20 KT SW RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO. STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND
ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE N COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 21N-22N BETWEEN 87W-
90W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. THE GOES IFR PROBABILITY IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE GULF IS
PRESENTLY VOID OF ANY IFR FOG OR STRATUS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS AND NE
MEXICO N OF 24N BETWEEN 96W-101W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE IS OVER THE GULF EXCEPT OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SURFACE RETURN FLOW TO PERSIST WITH
STRONGER WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALSO
EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER TEXAS TO MOVE E TO ARKANSAS...
LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS ALONG THE
S COAST OF CUBA. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
9N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER NW COLOMBIA...E PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND S
GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER N NICARAGUA... E
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO
LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA...N OF PUERTO RICO...AND N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE W CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AROUND JAMAICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM AGAIN SUN ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AND DAYTIME HEATING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM 31N70W
TO 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N32W WITH SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 45W. NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS...OR BEAUFORT SCALE 6...ARE OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS
BETWEEN ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 25N60W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 57W-60W. ANOTHER
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N40W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO DIP INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W TO 29N70W WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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