[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING
FROM 09N31W TO 03N32W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY
SHOWS ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE S OF 08N WITH THE WAVE WHILE
DRIER AIR PREVAILS N OF 08N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN 29N-36W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 10N14W TO 06N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT
POINT TO 05N30W THEN RESUMING W OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 04N35W
TO 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN
18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EXTENDING FROM 23N95W
TO 19N95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PREVAILS
ACROSS TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MOVE OFFSHORE
AFFECTING THE GULF WATERS N OF 25N AND W OF 94W. ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION PREVAILS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE WATERS E OF 93W. A BROAD AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC EXTENDING
SW REACHING THE GULF. WITH THIS...A LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH THAT CONTINUES CENTERED ACROSS THE E
ATLANTIC EXTENDS SW REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG DEEP LAYER
WIND SHEAR AND AN UPPER-LEVEL NW FLOW PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING COMBINED TO GENERATE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THAT
COULD MOVE OFFSHORE AFFECTING THEIR ADJACENT WATERS. A LIGHT TO
GENTLE NE FLOW IS OBSERVED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS MOST OF
THE BASIN EXCEPT S OF HISPANIOLA AND N OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 69W-
79W. OVER THIS AREA...MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS ARE DEPICTED. A
SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED DAYTIME CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED WITHING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N69W AND
EXTENDS TO 28N79W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 26N59W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 23N-
26N BETWEEN 56W-60W. TO THE E OF THIS CONVECTION...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N46W TO 27N48W. A BROAD 1038 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AZORES EXTENDS ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH
FAIR WEATHER. A GENTLE TO MODERATE NE FLOW IS DEPICTED IN
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND OBSERVATION ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC E OF
50W WHILE A LIGHT E FLOW PREVAILS W OF 50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

ERA
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