[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152320
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
4N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
4N22W TO 4N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 9W-14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF DUE TO RETURN FLOW
FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
NEAR 31N99W...AND A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF
OF MEXICO W OF 90W. THESE FEATURES ARE PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW GULF AND THE NORTHERN GULF STATES E OF
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
THE NW GULF N OF 26N BETWEEN 93W-97W...AND INLAND FROM E TEXAS
AT 98W TO S GEORGIA AT 83W FROM 30N-33N. AN AREA OF ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-
30N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA BETWEEN 27N-30N. FINALLY...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF THE S COAST OF CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE SE GULF. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO SHIFT E
TO THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA AND WEAKEST WINDS OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE S COAST OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...N COLOMBIA...PANAMA
...COSTA RICA...W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W.
ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOUR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DID NOT FORM TODAY. THERE IS A GOOD
PROBABILITY THEY WILL DEVELOP ON SATURDAY HOWEVER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF VIRGINIA NEAR 39N71W. A
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N56W TO 27N60W TO
26N70W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR
27N79W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM 27N-35N BETWEEN 52W-56W. A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N21W DOMINATING THE E ATLANTIC N OF
20N E OF 50W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N58W SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
33N31W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
E TO 31N48W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA
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