[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151741
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
07N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
07N18W TO 02N25W TO 06N39W TO 01N50W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N
BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N87W TO A BASE
SOUTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 10N89W. MORE IMPORTANTLY...ANOTHER MORE
ENERGETIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE SW CONUS WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING
IN AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND
EASTERN TEXAS WITH MOST CONVECTION REMAINING INLAND ACROSS
TEXAS...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE E-SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
GULF AND ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT LATE.
SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO ALSO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL INCREASE THE E-SE SURFACE WINDS
SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING NORTH-SOUTH ALONG 87W FROM OVER THE SE GULF OF
MEXICO TO A BASE SOUTH OF HONDURAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC NEAR
10N90W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES RELATIVELY DRIER AND
STABLE AIR E OF 70W WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN THE
OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...MOSTLY FAIR SKIES PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE. THE
MAIN IMPACT REMAINS THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES
GENERATED BY A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN ANCHORS
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY...RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND STABLE CONDITIONS
PERSIST ALOFT. ASIDE FROM A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS THE ISLAND...CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 36N59W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO A BROAD BASE NEAR
25N52W. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
36N57W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S-SW FROM THE
LOW CENTER TO 32N57W THEN SW TO 28N65W BECOMING STATIONARY
WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 30N59W SW TO
22N63W. MOST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 27N BETWEEN
50W-59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT W OF 59W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH CENTERED NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 41N21W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN
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