[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL 1200 UTC THIS
MORNING. SEAS OF 11 TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
5N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS THROUGH 06N36W TO
03N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 08N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OFF THE NE US COAST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
LOCATED ACROSS TX. THESE TROUGHS SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS OVER NORTHERN FL TO APALACHICOLA
BAY NEAR 30N84W. THE STATIONARY FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO A WARM
FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE FL PANHANDLE COAST...TO JUST
INLAND OVER MS. CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER TX SUPPORTS SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND TROUGHING
OVER WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 81W AND 86. E SURFACE WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KT COVERS THE NE GULF. E TO SE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
FORECAST TO PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND A 1004
MB LOW OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL
FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS COVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE WESTERN ATLC TO WESTERN CUBA TO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N83W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 74W
AND 82W. LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RE-DEVELOP OVER THE ISLAND DURING THE
DAYTIME TODAY...DIMINISHING LATER TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO OUR AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 31N78W TO
31N80W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO N FL NEAR
30N82W. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM SE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N60W
TO WESTERN CUBA SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 21N
TO 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. HIGH PRESSURE OF 1028 MB IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N50W. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS E OF 60W OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL ATLC S OF 32N. CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO
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