[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132309
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS GENERATING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS
WILL HAVE HIGHER WINDS DUE TO THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA DEEPENING
DURING THE NIGHT. A GALE IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT FROM 11N-13N
BETWEEN 74W-77W BETWEEN 0600 UTC AND 1200 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 9N13W TO
5N20W TO 5N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 5N26W TO 5N33W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
2N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N
BETWEEN 18W-32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
W OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AT 30N81W
TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AT 30N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 30NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...AND MOST OF THE S COAST OF CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
LOUISIANA...S TEXAS...AND THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. 10-15
KT E-SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER TEXAS AND THE W GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
92W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE. ALSO EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

NEAR GALE WINDS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. A BRIEF
GALE IS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SEE ABOVE. AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004
MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W. 10-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WEAKEST WINDS ARE ALONG
THE S COAST OF CUBA. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE S COAST OF CUBA...CENTRAL HISPANIOLA...E
PANAMA...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PUERTO RICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N79W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DURING PEAK HEATING
AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF N FLORIDA
FROM 29N-31N W OF 80W DUE TO A STATIONARY FRONT. A 1028 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N48W DOMINATING THE
ATLANTIC FROM 20N-35N BETWEEN 20W-80W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR
25N68W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN
66W-69W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 15N
BETWEEN 20W-50W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT
TO DIP INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO 30N78W WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA
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